Members Feedback 18 Dec 07



Grade A

Since February my wife and I have been travelling in our caravan having sold everything we now live solely off our trading (your trading). Lihir Gold, Oil Search, Bhp and Woodside have fed our V8 F250 (the only thing we can't pass is a petrol station.) After the gut wrenching drop in August we bailed out on the rebound and are all but fully in cash. We are looking forward to Fat’s advice to get back in next year.

Exceptionally good economic over-view, which time consistently has proven correct. Just have to wait for the market to catch up with some of your insights.

I appreciate the combination of fundamental analysis with charting. The coverage of listed companies is good also, though would like to occasionally see a few stocks featured from the New Zealand Stock Exchange.

In a macro sense, the analysis of the general market drivers (forecasting the subprime issue in the US and the falling US dollar, and the implications for commodities including gold and oil) have been spot on and I've certainly benefited as a result. Some stock selections - notably OGC and IAG - have missed the mark (so far) but I'm satisfied this is a question of timing and not a reflection of the underlying companies themselves.

Thank you, your advice has helped me to grow my small 30k portfolio by more than 10% over the last six months. I appreciate the quick response to my question when the August correction happened. I look forward to the reports each week. Keep up the great work.

I give you an A again. Keep up the good work.

Grade B

Overall standard similar to previous years. The one stand-out issue was the post-August correction week when many of the stocks covered were updated regarding their standings post that correction. That was really good.

Accordingly, the main area where improvements can be made is to update more stocks with a snippet, not a full report as per usual but just a couple of paragraphs each week. Then you'd cycle through the whole portfolio every month or so and members would be up to date on how you thought each holding was going.

You could do 4 full reports, and one report updating maybe 5 or 6 other companies, each week.

Generally invested in mining companies. I already held 10,000 GMI shares prior to joining Fat Prophets, but have enjoyed your updates on this company. Otherwise went with AVX, OGC, LGL, SBM, DIO and TOX. All but the first 2 have provided great returns (so far!). I enjoy your commentary on the general markets (perhaps more of this would suit investors who look at the bigger picture). Keep up the great work!

B - I was tempted to give a C or even a D, however I’m in this for the long term. There have been some outstanding recommendations and some very poor, particularly the industrials. Over all I think I’ve broken even (less costs and interest).

Last few years has been an A due particularly to the accurate calls on gold and oil. Unfortunately most of my purchases this year were on behalf of my son and I managed to select more losers than winners.

Overall a very strong performance. Some great, some not so great investments, but as long term investors, returns can't be based on one year of performance. Highlights have been LGL, OSH and WPL, the only significant disappointment is SOT, but time will tell on this front.


Love the big picture stories especially on oil, the economy and gold. Only complaint is statements that suggest a stronger share price / share price chart indicates the business is recovering. I'm still not quite sure how that one works especially when share prices improve without any material announcements.

Your recommendations were good, however your Gold stance has yet to produce the goods. I am finding difficulty seeing the relationships between the various elements in play at the moment - financials, the USD, US interest rates, Dow up - gold down & Dow down gold up, etc. I would also like to concentrate on your best / strongest tips. Up until now it has been a trial and error approach.

I have a hectic life and really do not read the reports thoroughly and so it would be unfair to criticize. However I am grateful for the overall trend recommendations even though I seem to have bought some duds on your advice. You encourage me to hold on when my gut is telling me to sell, and that is probably more sensible than selling at the bottom, as of course I know. However, because I have not made much headway yet I give you a B.

Grade C

While I understand that Fat Prophets pick many winners, it is quite likely that stocks chosen by clients won't always be the best performers. The following are the stocks that I chose and hence form the basis of my report.

Biota $15 1.2%

Centamin $200 17.2%

Carnarvon Pet $7425 412%

Dioro -$110 -5.5%

Elkedra ??

GRD $5 0.4%

St Barbara $530 55.2%

Avexa -$350 -22.3%

A rather mediocre result except for the star performance of Carnarvon Petroleum. With the exception of CVN these results are not very impressive and therefore I grade Fat Prophets performance as a C.

Unlike prior years, I have felt there have been too many misses this year. While I appreciate the volatility of the markets and the fact that we are geared towards a longer term outlook, it just seemed that numerous selections tanked shortly after your recommendation, and give no indications that they might recover anytime soon. While your general themes on the USD and gold have been spot on, turning that to "gold" for investors this year has appeared more troublesome.

Same message as a while ago – I know you strongly believe that resource stocks, especially gold, represent the best value today, but small investors (like me) do not want to concentrate all our investment in one sector. If we did, we would have subscribed to your mining industry report. How about more regularly provide buying recommendations in other sectors?

Grade D

We will not be renewing our subscription when it expires. The majority of your recommendations that we felt were suitable for us to purchase have been our major losses for the year.

As the purchased securities during the last 12 months on the recommendation of Fat Prophets thus; BJT, FZN, LST, NEM, OXR, REU & TTY only TTY & OXR are showing a positive return so I will give a fail this year. This would be a D.

DISCLAIMER

Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in ABB Grain (ABB), Aurora Minerals (ARM), Austal (ASB), Australian Wealth Management (AUW), Avoca Resources (AVO), Avexa (AVX), Argo Exploration (AXT), BHP Billiton (BHP), Babcock & Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), Boart Longyear (BLY), Biota Holdings (BTA), Catalpa Resources (CAH), Catalpa Resource Options (CAHO), Coeur D'Alene Mines (CXC), Fat Prophets (FAT), Fat Prophets Options (FATO), Fosters Group (FGL), Global Mining Investments (GMI), Lihir Gold (LGL), Lion Selection (LST), Macarthur Coal (MCC), Maryborough Sugar Factory (MSF), Mundo Minerals (MUN), Mineral Securities (MXX), Mineral Securities Options (MXXO), Newmont Mining (NEM), Oil Search (OSH), Oz Minerals (OZL), Progen Options (PGLO), Platinum Australia (PLA), QBE Insurance (QBE), Rio Tinto (RIO), Roc Oil (ROC), St Barbara (SBM), Sirtex Medical (SRX), Territory Iron Ord (TFE), Telstra Corporation (TLS), Tox Free Solutions (TOX), View Resources (VRE), View Resources Options (VREO), Walter Diversified (WDS), Woodside Petroleum (WPL), Merrill Lynch Gold Fund, Platinum Japan Fund, Gold Bullion. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations. The above disclaimer does not apply to investments held by the Fat Prophets Australia Fund Limited ACN 111 772 359 (FPAFL).